3 Leading Indicators that Reveal How to Predict Success with Stunning Accuracy
Can you predict the future?
Photo by Hunter Bryant on Unsplash
“The best way to predict the future is to create it.”
— Peter Drucker
Imagine if you could predict what would happen in the future.
What would you do? What would you avoid doing? How would your behavior change right now?
We all would like to predict the future.
But most of us cannot.
Most?
Yes, most.
Years ago, when I was an active trader in the financial markets, I learned about the many indicators that experts use to make judgments about the markets.
Everyone was looking — and probably still is looking — for signs that could predict the future.
Other indicators simply measured how the stocks or other financial vehicles had performed in the past.
A leading indicator provides some indication of what will happen in the future.
A lagging indicator provides a measurement of what happened in the past.
Some traders believe that leading indicators exist. They live to discover these secret trends that few others know.
Others believe there are no leading indicators. They believe that every indicator is a lagging one. Every measurement only reveals what happened in the past. And every event in the past is already priced into the market.
I no longer actively trade, but I still look for leading indicators in my own life. I believe they exist.
I have reinvented myself personally and professionally many times over the past 20 years. And I have found three indicators that I believe predict my own success in an area. I have seen these indicators in myself and also in the people around me.
I believe they predict success. The last one is a little scary, but I have found it to be accurate. Let me know if you agree.
. . .
(1) Zero to One
You cannot have massive success until you know how to create a small one.
Peter Thiel wrote an entire book about the struggle to move from zero to one. Conceptually, the idea allows us to create something new that has not happened before.
But I am not just referring to business success.
I love the story about the man walking along the beach throwing seashells into the ocean. Stranded on the beach, the animal inside the shell would die if it did not return to the water.
A boy saw the man throwing the shells back into the ocean. The boy saw thousands of shells on the beach, while the man threw one shell back at a time.
The boy asked, “How can you think to make a difference when you can only throw a few shells back, while thousands are still stuck on the beach?”
The man replied, “Well, it makes a difference to this one,” as he threw the single shell back into the ocean.
One leading indicator is that we know how to have success on a small scale — the smallest scale in fact.
If I am trying to become a writer, can I write a single article? Can I write a chapter? Can I write a page?
If I can’t succeed with one of something, then I know that I may have problems trying to succeed on a much larger scale.
On the other hand, if I can succeed with one, then I know that I could succeed with more than one.
I have found this to be true
Can you serve one person? Do you know how to do that? If so, then do that over and over and over again.
My friend Jerome Vierling teaches that you should do for one what you wish you could do for all. He lives by the principle that even if we can’t help everyone, we should help one person — if we can.
Here are some examples from my own life.
After I wrote and published a single article that had some success, then I knew that I could do it again.
After I changed my diet so that I actually became leaner (by measurement), then I knew I could continue to move ahead.
After I helped to produce one movie, then I knew I could do it again. And again.
After I ran one mile (without dying), I knew that I could run further.
After I achieved a yellow belt rank in karate, I knew that I could keep moving forward.
Once I carved out just 15 minutes in my schedule to write on a regular basis, I knew that I could write 50 articles in a year. Or an entire book.
Once you can prove to yourself that you can successfully move from zero to one, then you have proven that you can succeed.
But the small victory is not enough. You need something else.
. . .
(2) Consistency
Most people are derailed by a single victory. Sure, small victories precede large ones. But if we do not understand the power of consistent action, then we will never grow.
It goes even further than that.
Consistency predicts success. Once you have a small victory, proving that you can move from zero to one, then you need to replicate the single success over and over. And over. And over.
And over.
For many years, the lack of consistency was a detrimental flaw for me. I could study hard and figure something out. I could pack a lot into a single day, or a few days. I used what I call “brute force” for most of my successes, which means that I worked as hard as I could until the job was done. And then I crashed.
I missed out on all of the benefits of daily, repeated action, because I had to recover for so long after I achieved my goal. I never learned how to perform consistently and effectively for long, extended periods of time.
Long-term, consistent action is rare. It is near-miraculous. Something is always waiting to derail our goals of consistency. Sickness, urgencies, and emergencies are all lurking behind our goals of consistent action.
But consistency is possible.
There are principles that have helped me. I used to struggle to put together a single day in which I actually accomplished what I wanted. I searched for people who had this figured out. I looked for books on the subject. Most of them helped.
One book helped more than any other: The One Thing, by Gary Keller and Jay Papasan. The main idea in the book is that any achievement can be isolated into doing one thing on a daily basis. The “one thing” is something that, by doing it, makes everything else easier, or not important.
Now, I work on my one thing on a daily basis. My one thing is the first thing that I do. Until my one thing is done, everything else is a threat to my consistency and ultimate success.
It is not easy, but consistency is possible. And consistency reveals so many other skillsets and abilities.
Consistency reveals:
Mental toughness
Discipline
A structure that allows consistency
The ability to prioritize over long periods
Delayed gratification
For me, consistency is an indicator of success. Not just for a few days. Not just for a few weeks. But consistency for long periods of time. I look for it in my own life. I look for it in others.
And for me, consistency for a long period of time leads directly to my next leading indicator.
. . .
(3) The Leader in a Race Runs Alone
Most people are mediocre. And average is attractive to many people. And when you are “average” you are usually surrounded by other similar people.
I have noticed this: the bigger the goal and the higher the standard, the fewer people there are that have similar goals.
When you dream big, when you are aiming high, and when you want to achieve more than what seems normal…
You are often by yourself.
I have repeatedly noticed a feeling that I get when I am really starting to move towards my vision about where I want to go. The feeling comes about when I am working hard and striving to do something that I have never done before. I only notice this feeling in short, interstitial moments when I have a few seconds to think before being interrupted.
That feeling is loneliness.
I don’t mean the type of loneliness that occurs when no one is around you ‒ when you have no followers or companions on a journey.
I am referring to the loneliness of creating something so new and different that it is difficult (though not impossible) to find people who are thinking about the same things that you are thinking about.
Here is how I think about it:
The leader in a race runs alone.
As a warning, it is easy to think that something is wrong or off when you are alone. It is also easy to become wrapped up in how no one else is around. Many times loneliness can lead to other problems. Mental health may be at stake. Loneliness could be a symptom or an early indicator of something else.
Please be careful.
But for me, I know a certain type of loneliness is a true indicator that I am on a path that others are not on. That feeling reminds me that I am willing to stand on my own ideas and think for myself.
Here’s an example.
Years ago while in law school, I had the opportunity to participate in a moot court competition. Half of the competitors had a similar topic to mine. But not a single person agreed with my take on the arguments.
Nobody.
And trust me, I tried to convince people.
Even the assigned professor thought my ideas were a little outside the norm. Fortunately, he encouraged to keep going even if no one agreed with me ‒ even him.
So I kept pushing forward. And I remember so clearly a feeling of loneliness. It was late at night. My wife was asleep. I was up late studying: reading cases and planning responses to different positions. No one else I knew was going to argue the way I was going to.
I was lonely.
I had ideas. I had a vision of what I thought might work. I was not sure if I was right but I was going to bet on myself. I was running a race and I did not see anyone in front of me.
Cutting to the end, no one else could match the positions that I took.
The competition ended. And I won. My team won and I won best advocate overall.
I can recall this feeling quite a few times, with each time a precursor to something great.
And you know what? I am feeling it right now.
. . .
No Indicator Is Perfect
“A good plan violently executed now is better than a perfect plan executed next week.”
— General George S. Patton
No indicator is perfect. The three above are based on what I have noticed in my own experiences. But I look for these. And try to duplicate them every time I am chasing something new.
I am curious.
Have you noticed any leading indicators in your own life? Do you think they even exist?
. . .
Learn the one lesson that has changed my life more than any other.